Here’s the ethical of the story in advance – your greatest probability to win the Brownlow is to be the one really excellent participant in your crew, even in case you’re not on a crew that wins each recreation. You know, like Jack Steele.
Marcus Bontempelli of the Western Bulldogs nonetheless leads our MVP race, however the subsequent three gamers racing up the rankings are precisely these gamers described above – the singular stars of the Saints, Blues, and Suns, who’ve all handed the early and mid-season threats from Melbourne and Essendon and Port Adelaide, pushed again by competing expertise on their very own groups greater than anybody else.
If you’ve adopted my columns over the previous couple of years, you’re conscious of the Following Football monitoring program we run that collects 23 sources of weekly voting and evaluations in search of the AFL season’s most dear participant. Our winner has matched the Brownlow in 5 of the prior six years, choosing Max Gawn over Tom Mitchell in 2018. And we’re again as much as 23 sources!
In addition this season, to supply one other layer of parallelism, we’re colour-coding the first 4 locations from every recreation of each spherical, hoping to match up with what the precise officers choosing the Brownlow are most definitely to resolve. We like recognising the 4 greatest to account for some of the inevitable variability that selecting that third (typically the second) greatest participant produces.
But in response to your feedback suggesting that it’s not a real parallel if we don’t follow the 3-2-1 voting system of the precise Brownlow, we’ve began monitoring each the prime three (3-2-1 voting) and prime 4 (5-3-2-1, in order that first place nonetheless equals second plus third locations).
With 5 rounds to go, listed below are each of these prime 25s, nicknamed color codes as a result of that’s how we monitor them on the large spreadsheet we monitor all of this information on.
Colour codes (top-four placements)
1st – Marcus Bontempelli (WD) – 40 factors (7 first locations/1 second place/1 third place/0 fourth locations)
2nd – Jack Steele (SK) – 39 factors (4/6/0/1)
third – Sam Walsh (CA) – 38 factors (5/2/2/3)
4th (tie) – Touk Miller (GO) – 36 factors (5/2/2/1) and Clayton Oliver (ME) – 36 factors (4/3/1/5)
sixth – Ollie Wines (PA) – 32 factors (4/2/1/4)
seventh – Darcy Parish (ES) – 31 factors (6/0/0/1)
eighth – Zach Merrett (ES) – 28 factors (3/2/3/1)
ninth – David Mundy (FR) – 26 factors (3/3/0/2)
tenth – Tom Mitchell (HA) – 24 factors (3/2/0/3)
eleventh (tie) – Christian Petracca (ME) – 23 factors (3/1/2/1) and Jack Macrae (WD) – 23 factors (2/3/1/2)
thirteenth (tie) – Josh Kelly (GW) – 22 factors (2/4/0/0) and Sean Darcy (FR) – 22 factors (3/1/2/0)
fifteenth – Jarryd Lyons (BR) – 20 factors (3/1/0/2)
sixteenth (tie) – Max Gawn (ME) – 19 factors (2/1/3/0), Callum Mills (SY) – 19 factors (2/1/3/0), and Taylor Walker (AD) – 19 factors (3/0/1/2)
nineteenth (tie) – Travis Boak (PA) – 18 factors (3/1/0/0), Dustin Martin (RI) – 18 factors (3/1/0/0), Toby Greene (GW) – 18 factors (2/2/0/2), Tom Stewart (GE) – 18 factors (2/0/3/2), Ben Cunnington (NM) – 18 factors (1/2/2/3) and Hugh McCluggage (BR) – 18 factors (1/2/2/3)
twenty fifth (tie) – Dayne Zorko (BR) – 17 factors (1/3/1/1) and Karl Amon (PA) – 17 factors (2/1/1/2)
It’s simple to see the sample in the votes. You’ll discover, for instance, a scarcity of West Coast Eagles in the prime 25. That’s as a result of there are 5 of them in the prime 50, they usually cancel one another out.
Jamie Cripps had the highest vote whole final week in the Eagles’ win over Adelaide, however that was his very first color code factors of the season (of course, his accidents precluded him profitable most of the season).
His win stored Andrew Gaff and Shannon Hurn from incomes extra votes, and stored Nic Naitanui out of the votes altogether. The ruckman completed fifth for the recreation.
Meanwhile, each Touk Miller of Gold Coast and Tom Mitchell of Hawthorn earned blue codes for first place in their video games regardless of the proven fact that their groups didn’t win (I can hear the asterisk on my Hawthorn recreation remark already).
Jack Steele positioned second regardless of the Saints’ loss to Port Adelaide. It’s his seventh straight recreation with a primary or second place level whole, and the solely Saints participant to out-vote-total him in any of these video games is Luke Dunstan.
(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Similarly, Miller has had three straight blues in Rounds 16, 17 and 18, however extra outstanding than that’s that he’s now gone 9 straight video games as the main vote getter amongst Suns gamers, courting again to Round 9, which he sat out because of suspension.
The idea of sole breadwinners even works in elements of seasons, as Fremantle has demonstrated. During the first third or so, veteran David Mundy ran up blue ribbons like a champion vineyard. In latest weeks, it’s been Sean Darcy who has collected the votes from Dockers video games, win or lose. The intervals of dominance for every have put each of them in the prime 15.
Bontempelli has been at the prime since a string of first-place video games in Rounds 8-10. The two prime candidates he was operating alongside again then, nonetheless – Darcy Parish and Clayton Oliver – have been pressured to share votes with Zach Merrett and Christian Petracca respectively, whereas Bontempelli has stored the prime spot and the solo artists have moved ahead.
This week’s win over Gold Coast is an effective instance of why we use the broad-based system we do. Some evaluators, like the coaches voting by means of the AFLCA and the Brownlow predictors at some betting businesses, had Bontempelli as the unequivocal best-on-ground. Others, like the 4 guys choosing their prime fives for Zero Hanger or Footyology’s crew of the week, didn’t discover him on the area in any respect.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
The total impact was to put him third for the recreation on common, behind teammate Jack Macrae and Gold Coast’s Miller. But that’s why it’s exhausting to observe any particular person voter and really feel snug that you realize what the Brownlow voters will do, particularly when there are so few individuals doing the voting for the medal.
Reducing the color votes to the prime three and scoring them like Charlie does – three for first, two for second, one for third – doesn’t change the ladder an excessive amount of, but it surely does offer you males (and ladies) of Steele much more hope for a Saints victory on Monday, September twentieth (or so – nothing is particular in the period of COVID).
1st (tie): Marcus Bontempelli (WD) and Jack Steele (SK) – 24 factors
third (tie): Sam Walsh (CA) and Touk Miller (GO) – 21 factors
fifth: Clayton Oliver (ME) – 19 factors
sixth: Darcy Parish (ES) – 18 factors
seventh: Ollie Wines (PA) – 17 factors
eighth: Zach Merrett (ES) – 16 factors
ninth: David Mundy (FR) – 15 factors
tenth: Josh Kelly (GW) – 14 factors
From there on down, there are a mass of names amongst those that don’t have a shot at getting a date with Charlie this season.
eleventh (tie): Tom Mitchell (HA), Jack Macrae (WD), Christian Petracca (ME), Sean Darcy (FR) – 13 factors
fifteenth (tie): Jarryd Lyons (BR), Callum Mills (SY), Max Gawn (ME), Dustin Martin (RI), Travis Boak (PA) – 11 factors
twentieth (tie): Taylor Walker (AD), Toby Greene (GW), Dayne Zorko (BR), Andrew Gaff (WC), Jack Riewoldt (RI), Cam Guthrie (GE) – ten factors
Seriously, even when one of them earns 15 votes in the final 5 video games, do you see both Bontempelli or Steele getting fewer than 5 votes the relaxation of the season? That’s what’s required for Petracca or Mitchell to win it at this level. Our MVP award, nonetheless, remains to be based mostly on the total level whole, which Bontempelli nonetheless leads by 50 factors over Walsh. We’ll take a look at that subsequent week.
So, trying ahead, who has what video games developing, and might we anticipate Jack Steele, Sam Walsh, or Touk Miller to overhaul the Bulldogs’ favorite by Round 23?
Bontempelli (and Macrae) have Melbourne, Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn, and Port remaining. Each crew has one or two gamers who usually function in the voting, and 4 of the 5 have sturdy midfields as properly. Winning all the time helps, and the Doggies shall be favourites in the final 4, in all probability by three targets or extra.
If Bontempelli can pull something shut to fifteen Brownlow votes – something in double digits can be spectacular – he’ll not solely lock the medal up, however he’ll deserve it past any query or doubt.
Steele has West Coast, Carlton, Sydney, Geelong, and Fremantle remaining. There are some actual beasts in the midfields he’ll be going through, however Steele has been a beast himself, as I discussed, polling prime two in the final seven matches.
If he retains that sample up – first or second in every of these matches, which is possible win or lose – that will give him not less than ten extra votes, and a complete Bontempelli and everybody else would discover exhausting to match.
Walsh and Carlton play North, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Port, and GWS. Those three centre video games put him immediately towards different prime six midfielders (Steele, Miller, and Wines). Ben Cunnington and Toby Greene aren’t chickenfeed, both.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
He has to not less than match what Jack Steele does, and by our estimation out-poll him by two or extra votes, to contemplate himself an actual probability to win what must be the first of a number of Brownlow medals.
Touk Miller and the Gold Coast Suns play Brisbane (yeesh), Melbourne (uh-oh), Carlton (good day, Sam), Essendon (hello, Darcy and Zach), and Sydney. If he polls sufficient top-twos to maneuver previous the three we’ve got in entrance of him with that gauntlet to duel, he deserves all the accolades he will get and extra.
It would in all probability require him enjoying selfishly to build up 40 a recreation (which could properly come naturally, in addition to he’s enjoying), however that goes towards his team-first nature. It appears unlikely.
And under him, you’ve Oliver, Parish, and Wines who produce other stars on their very own groups to compete with, and behind them, it begins to require extra votes than they’ve out there to them in the closing 5 video games if certainly any of these first three can win eight or ten votes.
So, our cash is on Jack Steele profitable the Brownlow, with Bontempelli second and Sam Walsh third. But the pandemic rescheduling could have quite a bit to say about the circumstances of every recreation between now and the finish of August. And this can be one other yr that we recognise a distinct MVP than the Brownlow does, for causes we’ll talk about subsequent week.
Postscript – in our haste to get our predictions for Round 19 to you, we shot them off to the editor earlier than the AFL selected to change out three video games between Rounds 19 and 20.
So right here’s the ELO-Following Football scores forecasts for the video games as at the moment scheduled (Tuesday evening), together with a impartial web site assumption for the Essendon-GWS recreation:
• Port Adelaide by 26 over Collingwood
• Carlton by 14 over North Melbourne (however I received’t be stunned by any North win the relaxation of 2021)
• Brisbane by 30 over Gold Coast in the Q Clash.
• West Coast by one level over St Kilda (and personally, I like the Saints proper now)
• Hawthorn by three over Adelaide
• Bulldogs by two over the Demons at the MCG. (But I received’t put cash on it, I simply need to take pleasure in it.)
• Sydney by three targets over Fremantle.
• Geelong by 21 over Richmond. (I like Richmond’s facet of that line.)
• Essendon versus GWS someplace in house? Dons by 5.
