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The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 15


That’s a lot, a lot extra prefer it!

Round 13 was horrifically unfortunate, however final week was simply chic. Is it actually a ‘perfect’ spherical if there have been solely 5 video games? After the stunning 12 months I’ve had, it completely is.

In reality, final week’s 5 out of 5 will go down within the annals of tipping historical past as one of the crucial brave and important achievements.

Okay, positive. Dem Panopoulos and the Crowd scored an ideal 5 too. However, Liam Salter’s paltry 4 means he’s now two factors adrift of Dem within the lead and now simply two factors forward of me.

With nine-game rounds from right here till finals, who is aware of what twists and turns we’ll be handled to?

Stirling Coates

Geelong, Richmond, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Carlton

This is a deceptively tough week. By my depend, there are solely three matches you actually can’t make a case for one aspect.

Those video games are tomorrow night time’s recreation between Richmond and St Kilda (are you able to consider this can be a semi-final rematch?) and Saturday night time’s showdown between Essendon and Melbourne.

The Tigers will put the Saints to the sword and the well-rested Demons will give the Bombers a bit of actuality verify.

You might make the case for Sydney towards Port Adelaide given the Power’s struggles towards high eight groups, however the Swans look to be limping by the second half of the season and I think they’ll cop a bruising.

With these video games out of the best way, it’s blockbuster metropolis! Tonight’s round-opener might be the toughest match to tip to date this season. Brisbane have turned their house floor into the Gabbatoir once more in 2021, profitable their final 5 video games there by a median of 44 factors.

Geelong, then again, look merely irresistible. We harped on about how their wins had been unimpressive for a lot of the season, however the info are as follows. They’ve misplaced three video games this season; a Round 1 ambush towards Adelaide, a hard-fought loss to the ladder-leading Demons and a controversial two-point loss to Sydney. They’ve gained their final six in a row, knocking off Richmond, Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs in that point.

They even have a monstrously good report towards Brisbane – together with a 40-point win in final 12 months’s preliminary ultimate. Winning streaks don’t final ceaselessly, however the Cats are simply in such good kind I can’t ignore them.

Dayne Zorko of the Lions in action

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos by way of Getty Images)

The Suns have been copping it within the press for a fortnight and, whereas I’ve been a bit responsible of becoming a member of in myself, it’s been a bit out of whack. Do folks not realise that placing the very same group of gamers in inexperienced jumpers and transferring their house video games to Tasmania gained’t truly change something on the sector?

Anyway, right here’s a fast quiz query; how lengthy is Gold Coast’s present shedding streak?

The appropriate reply is 2! Two complete losses! North Melbourne are a a lot, significantly better aspect in Hobart, however I’m going to again the Suns to face up for themselves and declare the factors.

Let’s do one other quiz query. How many instances have Greater Western Sydney defeated Hawthorn away from Giants Stadium?

The appropriate reply is zero! They’ve by no means misplaced to the Hawks at Homebush however they’ve by no means defeated them elsewhere. Hawthorn have regarded a lot sharper popping out of the bye and I’m going to again them to upset the flaky Giants now that they’re taking part in on the MCG.

The Western Bulldogs very practically broke an 18-year hoodoo towards Geelong final Friday night time and, regardless of the loss, nonetheless proved they’re adequate in 2021 for house floor benefit to not be an element while you play them.

West Coast’s struggles towards high 4 sides are nonetheless to massive to disregard, nevertheless, and I reckon their win over Richmond proved the Tigers are easing off reasonably than affirming their very own flag probabilities. Bulldogs in a thriller.

Finally, I’m going to again the primary recreation below a brand new coach consider boosting Collingwood to an upset over Freo, whereas the final match of the spherical feels precisely just like the match the giant-killing Crows of 2021 will drop.

The Shoe-In of the Week can be first recreation I mentioned; Richmond to chop the Saints to ribbons.

Dem Panopoulos

Brisbane, Richmond, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS Giants, West Coast, Adelaide

After wanting the byes to be over, final week’s tipping was so easy that I’m advocating 5 recreation rounds 12 months spherical.

Let the season take all 52 weeks if that’s what it takes.

A return to normality brings forth some actually good fixtures, none higher than Thursday night time.

The Cats are on hearth, there’s little doubt about it. There are a number of methods they will break down the opposition, and the expertise inside the workforce retains the calm below stress. Brisbane have a bit to show after failing their first massive problem towards the Demons. They’re nonetheless my tip for the flag, and I’ll again them to repair up their horrendous report on this fixture.

Having been tremendous important of St Kilda final week, it is sensible for them to return out and beat the Tigers, doesn’t it? Rowan Marshall and Tim Membrey doubtlessly returning will surely trigger points for Richmond’s defence, but it surely gained’t be sufficient.

North Melbourne are literally seen because the workforce extra prone to win towards the Suns, who might’ve probably although that may occur in 2021? Indeed, I’m of the identical pondering, notably in Tasmania.

The Suns have been horrific, they simply have to play attacking footy and see if that’s any higher than this controlling model with common kicking expertise.

Fremantle have gained 4 video games on the MCG from their final 9 makes an attempt, nevertheless none of these have been by greater than 4 factors. It’s fairly unimaginable, and the Magpies are a lot improved, maintaining video games fairly tight. I’ve a sense folks can be selecting the house workforce, I’ll be a contrarian right here.

I’m anticipating the Demons to have the ability to arrange properly behind the ball to restrict the aerial influence of Harrison Jones, which was the important thing behind Essendon’s slender victory over the Hawks. I wouldn’t be too involved of Jake Stringer’s dominance on this recreation.

You all know my ideas on Port Adelaide this season so I gained’t bore you with that, I simply occur to suppose Sydney isn’t significantly better. Power at house.

GWS ought to do the job at house towards an enhancing Hawthorn workforce that’s exhibiting some actually good indicators, not unexpectedly.

The Eagles can have a heap of their stars returning in time for this mouthwatering conflict at house towards the Bulldogs. They’ve gained the 2 earlier clashes at Optus Stadium by a median of 57.5 factors which is sufficient for me.

Finally, we wrap it up with the match everybody can be completely satisfied to skip over, Carlton towards the Crows. If the Blues lose, David Teague’s place might be untenable. Adelaide have gained 4 of their final 5 at Marvel and six of their final seven towards the Blues.

Ominous.

Liam Salter

Brisbane, Richmond, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS Giants, West Coast, Adelaide

So shut to 5 out of 5 final week! Damn my tip of Hawthorn!

In higher information, we’re out of the bye rounds, which suggests we’ve bought, in the end, a full suite of video games this week.

There are a number of thrilling video games this week – none extra so than tonight’s magnificence in Brisbane – however that additionally means there’s worryingly few sure tips. I’m reluctantly tipping Adelaide over Carlton in Sunday’s twilight conflict – the latter are favoured, however I don’t belief them, whereas I’ve a modicum of belief within the topsy-turvy Crows. Despite the Bombers steadily enhancing, beating the excellent Demons appears a bridge too far.

One recreation I’m nearly definitely certain will go as deliberate is Richmond very, very comfortably beating the Saints tomorrow night time.

As for tonight’s recreation, Geelong have proven over the previous fortnight they’re an irrefutable premiership contender by beating two different flag fancies. For most groups, the Lions in Brisbane are a difficult encounter – however Geelong are typically the challenger. The Lions have solely overwhelmed them as soon as anyplace since 2018 – at this venue, by one level. The different one level outcome – their controversial loss in April – will give them additional spark, and I’m tipping them to nab this one.

I’m morbidly excited to see the North-Gold Coast recreation. I do know it isn’t going to be good, however generally clashes like these have potential for surprises. North have been aggressive in most of their current video games, whereas the Suns have been horrific within the final fortnight.

Gold Coast have by no means performed in Hobart – shedding all 5 instances they’ve performed in Tassie general – and that’s motive sufficient to again the Kangaroos, who’re overdue for a win.

Tarryn Thomas of the Kangaroos handpasses

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos by way of Getty Images)

Collingwood enter the post-Nathan Buckley period with a match towards Freo. The Dockers have a poor interstate report, and are wildly inconsistent, however the possible returns of Nat Fyfe and Matt Taberner swing me of their favour, simply.

The two New South Wales sides – newly evacuated from the state – have intriguing clashes. The Giants will now play the Hawks on the MCG (Canberra’s Manuka Oval was ignored for some motive). They are likely to match up properly towards Hawthorn of late and, regardless of the Hawks being a greater aspect than the ladder suggests, will win this.

The Swans play Port in Adelaide on Saturday night time. The Power have break up their ends in the final two weeks, whereas Sydney stumbled with a shock loss towards the Hawks. It’s Port who’re weirdly heavy favourites right here, however I’m not so certain. They’ve misplaced Robbie Gray for a number of weeks and, regardless of an excellent current report over the Swans, this screams upset. I’ll nonetheless tip them, however hesitantly.

Finally, the Eagles host the Dogs on Sunday afternoon. The final two wins on this head-to-head have gone to the Dogs, however information of the Eagles’ returning quartet – Tim Kelly, Jeremy McGovern, Luke Shuey and Brad Sheppard – is nearly as good a outcome as they’d have desired. I keep the Dogs are the higher aspect, however stay weakened within the midfield, and have gained simply as soon as at Optus Stadium. I’ll again the Eagles.

Round 15StirlingDemLiamCrowd
BL vs GEEGEEBLBLBL
RCH vs STKRCHRCHRCHRCH
COL vs FRECOLFREFRECOL
NM vs GCSGCSNMNMNM
PA vs SYDPAPAPAPA
ESS vs MELMELMELMELMEL
GWS vs HAWHAWGWSGWSGWS
WCE vs WBWBWCEWCEWCE
CAR vs ADECARADEADECAR
Last week5545
Total74787677





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